Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang·2025-11-27 07:45Core Viewpoint - The demand for lithium, driven by the energy storage and power battery sectors, is expected to reach 2 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent by 2026, with supply and demand reaching a balance [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The price of lithium carbonate futures surged significantly, with the main contract LC2601 rising by 4.47% on November 25 and reaching a peak of 99,880 yuan/ton on November 26, marking a 19.26% increase in November [1][2]. - The lithium carbonate market has experienced an unexpected strong performance during the traditional off-season, attributed to improved expectations from leading companies, supportive policies, and structural changes in domestic and international trade [2][3]. Group 2: Demand Drivers - The demand for lithium carbonate is primarily driven by the power battery and energy storage sectors, with the latter showing unexpected growth due to several factors, including declining photovoltaic component prices and supportive government policies [6][7]. - The energy storage sector's performance has exceeded market expectations, with a significant increase in demand driven by the economic viability of storage projects and the low penetration rate of energy storage [7][8]. Group 3: Supply Constraints - The supply side is facing challenges, particularly in major lithium production areas like Jiangxi, where environmental regulations and unstable power supply have reduced operational rates [8][9]. - The overall inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased significantly, indicating a tightening supply situation, with registered warehouse receipts dropping from 42,400 contracts in early October to 27,100 contracts by November 26 [9][10]. Group 4: Price Projections - Market participants are speculating on potential price increases, with some forecasts suggesting that if demand growth exceeds 30%, prices could reach 150,000 to 200,000 yuan/ton [10][11]. - However, a balanced supply-demand scenario may lead to a slight oversupply by 2025, with prices likely stabilizing between 70,000 and 100,000 yuan/ton under normal conditions [11][12].