Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-11-27 07:58Core Insights - The global peak in oil demand is now expected to be delayed until after 2030, with projections indicating it may not occur until 2040, contrary to previous forecasts that suggested a peak before 2030 [2][3] - The shift in oil demand is influenced by the ongoing energy transition and the need for countries to meet climate goals, particularly the Paris Agreement's target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius [2][3] - The Chinese petrochemical industry is entering a new phase focused on quality and efficiency, with an emphasis on high-end, green, and intelligent transformation [2][4] Oil Demand Projections - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast, predicting global oil demand will grow from 103.5 million barrels per day last year to 113 million barrels per day by 2040 [2] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) anticipates that oil and gas demand may continue to rise until 2050, with oil consumption expected to increase by 13% compared to 2024 levels [3] - OPEC's Secretary-General has also indicated that oil will still account for about 30% of the global energy mix by 2050, with daily consumption exceeding 120 million barrels [3] Factors Influencing Demand - Bottlenecks in low-carbon technology adoption and infrastructure development are contributing to the delay in peak oil demand [3] - The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) has led to increased electricity consumption, which is still largely dependent on traditional energy sources like coal and oil, further driving oil demand [3] Green Transition Imperatives - Traditional oil and gas companies must leverage their technological and financial advantages to diversify into green energy development [4] - China's new Energy Law emphasizes the equal importance of renewable and fossil energy, pushing petrochemical companies to adjust their capital expenditure towards clean energy projects [4] Petrochemical Industry Dynamics - The demand for petrochemical feedstocks is expected to become more resilient, with their share of oil demand projected to rise from approximately 15% to nearly 30% by 2050 [5] - China is transitioning from a chemical consumption powerhouse to a strong producer, with self-sufficiency rates for certain chemical products expected to exceed 130% to 140% by 2030 [5] - The industry must focus on eliminating outdated capacity, enhancing energy efficiency, and developing high-value products to improve resilience and international competitiveness [5] Future Outlook for China's Petrochemical Sector - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period (2026-2030), significant changes in energy structure, technology routes, and market dynamics are anticipated in China's petrochemical industry [6] - The consumption of refined oil is expected to peak, while aviation kerosene will still have growth potential, and the share of green hydrogen will significantly increase [6] - The electrification rate is projected to rise from approximately 16%, although there will still be substantial decarbonization pressure in the heating sector [6]