中加基金权益周报︱股市大跌，但债市反应钝化

Market Overview and Analysis - The primary market saw the issuance of government bonds, local government bonds, and policy financial bonds amounting to 187 billion, 184.7 billion, and 114.9 billion respectively, with net financing of 101.6 billion, 126.7 billion, and 114.9 billion [1] - Financial bonds (excluding policy financial bonds) totaled an issuance of 206.8 billion with a net financing of 28 billion [1] - Non-financial credit bonds had an issuance of 384.6 billion and a net financing of 129.1 billion, while a new convertible bond was issued with an expected financing scale of 560 million [1] Secondary Market Review - The stock market experienced significant declines, while the bond market showed narrow fluctuations, influenced by factors such as liquidity volatility and rumors regarding mortgage interest subsidies [2] - The liquidity tracking indicated that funding rates fluctuated, with R001 down by 4.2 basis points and R007 up by 0.1 basis points compared to the previous week [2] Policy and Fundamentals - October fiscal revenue showed a clear divergence, with tax revenue increasing significantly while general fiscal expenditure saw a notable decline [3] - High-frequency data indicated weakening in both production and demand sides, with prices of food and production materials decreasing [3] Overseas Market - The non-farm payroll data for September showed mixed results, with Nvidia's earnings exceeding expectations, but the US stock market declined, leading to increased risk aversion overseas [4] - The 10-year US Treasury bond closed at 4.06%, down 8 basis points from the previous week [4] Equity Market - The A-share market weakened significantly, with the Wind All A index dropping by 5.13%, particularly affecting growth sectors [5] - Trading volume decreased, with an average daily trading volume of 1.87 trillion, down by 178.79 billion week-on-week, although there was a surge in trading on Friday due to panic selling and margin calls [5] - As of November 20, 2025, the total financing balance for the entire A-share market was 2.474 trillion, a decrease of 137.75 billion from November 13 [5] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - Given the limited risk of a significant downturn in fundamentals and the central bank's liquidity support, the short-term bond market lacks a clear direction, with the 10-year government bond expected to fluctuate within the 1.75%-1.85% range [6] - As the end of the month approaches, the bond market may operate flexibly around liquidity fluctuations and the central bank's expected bond trading volume in November, suggesting a focus on short to medium-term, high-grade credit bonds to manage risk and stabilize returns [6] - The convertible bond index is expected to experience high-level fluctuations, with a preference for a risk-reward framework to navigate the current market conditions [6]