美联储最新公布！褐皮书揭示美国经济三大压力

Economic Overview - The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book indicates that the U.S. economy is facing multiple pressures, with little change in economic activity and a further decline in overall consumer spending [1] - Employment market shows slight weakening, with about half of the 12 districts reporting softening labor demand [2] Employment Trends - Overall employment is "slightly down," with many companies opting for hiring freezes and natural attrition rather than direct layoffs [2] - Some businesses are adjusting employee work hours to respond to demand changes instead of reducing headcount [2] Wage and Price Pressures - Wage growth remains moderate, but sectors like manufacturing, construction, and healthcare are experiencing wage pressures [3] - Overall prices are "moderately rising," with manufacturers and retailers facing higher input costs due to tariffs [3] Consumer Spending Patterns - While high-end consumer spending remains resilient, overall consumer spending is declining, with a noticeable divide in spending behavior across income levels [4] - Low-income groups are cutting back on non-essential expenditures, while high-income consumers maintain stable demand [4] Inflation Insights - The manufacturing and retail sectors are under pressure from rising input costs attributed to tariffs, with expectations of continued cost pressures [5] - Recent data shows a 0.3% month-over-month increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI), indicating a resurgence of inflation driven by rising energy and food prices [5] Policy Dilemma - The government shutdown has delayed key economic data releases, leading to significant divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding December monetary policy [6] - Some officials advocate for rate cuts due to weak employment and declining consumer spending, while others argue against it due to persistent inflation and resilient high-end consumption [7] Market Expectations - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the December meeting has surged from approximately 40% to 84.7% according to CME FedWatch [8]