ATFX：褐皮书增强12月降息信号，美股在感恩节前乐观连涨

Core Insights - The recent Federal Reserve Beige Book indicates that U.S. economic activity has remained relatively stable, with about half of the 12 Federal Reserve districts reporting weakening employment and declining consumer spending, raising concerns about a soft labor market as the next interest rate decision approaches [1][2] Economic Activity - Economic activity has not changed significantly since the last report, with two districts reporting slight declines and one district reporting slight growth [1] - The report, compiled during the government shutdown that ended on November 12, highlights negative impacts on consumer spending due to the shutdown [1] Labor Market - There has been an increase in layoff announcements, but more regions are opting for strategies like hiring freezes and natural attrition rather than direct layoffs [1] - The unemployment rate in September was reported at 4.4%, with a slowdown in job growth compared to previous levels [2] Consumer Spending - Consumer spending is showing signs of decline, influenced by high prices that have led households to be more cautious [2] - Retailers have noted that the government shutdown negatively affected consumer behavior [1] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing sector is still in contraction, with the October PMI around 48.7, indicating ongoing challenges [2] - Companies are facing weak demand and rising costs related to tariffs, particularly in manufacturing and retail [1][2] Interest Rate Expectations - The Beige Book maintains a cautious tone, with increasing risks of economic activity slowing in the coming months [2] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December are high, with the probability now around 80% [2] Market Reactions - Global stock markets have rebounded due to expectations of a Fed rate cut, recovering from a sell-off triggered by concerns over high valuations in the AI sector [5] - The U.S. stock market has shown a four-day rally leading up to Thanksgiving, reflecting a historically optimistic trend during this period [5]