展望2026：地产磨底与规则重写

Core Viewpoints - 2026 is expected to be a "bottoming year" for the real estate market, with new residential sales likely to see further adjustments, although the decline may be less severe than in 2025. Prices are expected to show an "L-shaped" tail effect, with core areas in first-tier cities possibly seeing a month-on-month increase in the first half of 2026, while weaker third and fourth-tier cities are unlikely to stop declining throughout the year [3][4][5] Macro: Credit Bottoming and Fiscal Support - The drag of real estate on GDP is projected to decrease from 1.5-2 percentage points in 2025 to 0.5-1 percentage points, indicating a consensus expectation of "diminishing macro headwinds" [4] - The fiscal policy for 2026 includes an early allocation of 1.5 trillion yuan in special bonds, with 300 billion yuan specifically for acquiring existing residential properties for affordable housing, providing a safeguard for 250-300 million square meters of inventory [6][7] Financial: From "Leverage Dividend" to "Asset Dividend" - The financing landscape shows a peak in credit bond maturities in Q3 2025, with a gap of 25 billion yuan for private real estate companies needing to refinance. By 2026, the maturity volume is expected to decrease by 18%, and 21 distressed companies are projected to complete debt restructuring, alleviating the "default pulse" in the industry [8] - The REITs market is anticipated to expand by 150-200 billion yuan in 2026, with projects yielding cash flows above 5% expected to achieve valuations of 15-20 times, compared to traditional development businesses at 3-5 times PE [8] Residential Real Estate: Structural Race for Inventory Depletion - The estimated new residential sales area for 2026 is projected to be 85-86 million square meters, corresponding to a sales amount of 8.6 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4-6%, but the narrowing decline suggests a potential end to the "volume-price double kill" phase [9] - In first-tier and strong second-tier cities, inventory depletion is expected to take 14-18 months, with a potential slight price increase of within 5% for desirable properties in main urban areas [10] - In weaker second-tier and third-fourth tier cities, inventory is expected to exceed 30 months, with prices continuing to decline by 3-8% [11] Commercial Real Estate: "Threefold Evolution" - The industry is undergoing a transformation from scale worship to refined operations and risk hedging, with 2026 serving as a critical testing period for this framework [12] - The ability to revitalize assets is exemplified by Wanda's management of the Beijing Blue Harbor, which improved rental income by 5% and reduced vacancy rates to 5% through operational adjustments [12] - The introduction of public REITs tax incentives and technological advancements will determine which companies can upgrade commercial real estate into urban service infrastructure [12] Corporate Strategies: From "Three Highs" to "Three Light" - The light asset model, including construction agency, asset management, and property management, is expected to maintain a growth rate of 15-20% in 2026, with net profit margins of 8-12%, significantly higher than the 3-4% profit margin of development businesses [13] - Major state-owned enterprises aim for a net debt ratio below 50% by 2026, while private distressed companies are expected to reduce their net debt ratios to 80-100% [13] - The "sales-driven investment" approach will become a hard constraint, with a land sales ratio of 0.2-0.5, compelling real estate companies to convert land reserves into sellable resources [13] Policy Outlook: From "Market Rescue" to "Reform" - The real estate policy for 2026 will feature a dual track of "short-term stability and long-term reform," with measures including marginal relaxation of purchase restrictions in core areas and a 30 basis point reduction in mortgage rates [14][15] - Structural reforms such as the national trading of land indicators and the introduction of housing pension schemes are expected to be implemented in 2026, providing a foundational framework for new real estate models during the 14th Five-Year Plan [15]