股价债市“双跌” 万科还有多少压力？

Core Viewpoint - Vanke A's stock price has dropped over 7%, reaching a new low since August 2015, while its H-shares also fell significantly, indicating ongoing financial pressure on the company [2][4]. Stock Performance - Vanke A closed at 5.47 yuan, down 7.13%, with a market capitalization of 65.3 billion yuan, marking a cumulative decline of 24.66% this year and over 85% since its peak in 2018 [3][4]. - Vanke's H-shares closed at 3.58 HKD, reflecting a year-to-date decline of over 32% [4]. Bond Market Activity - On November 26, several of Vanke's bonds experienced significant declines, with "22 Vanke 02" dropping over 17% and others falling between 7% to 11% [5]. - On November 27, these bonds showed volatility, with "22 Vanke 04" rising over 31% at one point before being temporarily suspended due to a drop exceeding 30% [6][7]. Debt Obligations - Vanke has a total domestic debt of 21.798 billion yuan, with a repayment peak occurring in December 2023. The company faces a funding gap of 6.391 billion yuan despite support from its major shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group [7][8]. - The upcoming bondholder meeting on December 10 will discuss the extension of the "22 Vanke MTN004" bond, which has a principal repayment date of December 15 and a balance of 2 billion yuan [7]. Market Conditions and Future Outlook - The new housing market continues to decline, impacting Vanke's sales and cash flow. The company is advised to optimize asset management, secure new land, and rely on support from its major shareholder and creditors [8]. - Analysts predict that the real estate market may begin to bottom out between 2026 and 2027, suggesting potential recovery for Vanke if it can effectively manage its assets and liabilities [8][9].