HAERS(SZ:002615) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-11-27 12:35Core Viewpoint - Hars is a leading company in the domestic cup and thermos industry, with a strong focus on both OEM/ODM and proprietary brand businesses, expecting significant revenue growth and profit increase from 2021 to 2024 [1][4]. Industry Overview - The cup and thermos industry is transitioning from durable goods to fashionable consumer products, with significant growth potential in China, which is a major production country [2]. - From 2017 to 2021, China's thermos cup production grew at a CAGR of 7.4%, increasing from 490 million to 650 million units [2]. - Domestic sales of thermos cups in 2021 were approximately 150 million units, with a CAGR of 5.1% from 2017 to 2021, indicating room for growth compared to mature markets [2]. - The current domestic ownership rate of thermos cups is only 0.5 units per person, significantly lower than Japan (1.5 units) and the U.S. (0.68 units), suggesting potential for increased consumption [2]. - The concentration ratio in the U.S. online market (CR4 at 45%) is much higher than in China (CR4 at 20%), indicating further consolidation opportunities in the domestic market [2]. Company Competitive Advantages - Hars has established solid partnerships with leading international brands such as YETI and PMI, leveraging their influence in developed markets to support industry upgrades [3]. - The company has enhanced its smart manufacturing capabilities and established a fully digitalized operation system, creating an efficient closed-loop from R&D to sales [3]. - Hars is transitioning from a "cup manufacturer" to a "lifestyle brand operator," with a focus on building brand recognition through various marketing strategies [4]. Proprietary Brand Development - By 2024, Hars expects that the revenue from its proprietary brands will account for over 20% of total sales, with continuous improvement in profitability [4]. - The company is actively engaging in multi-channel marketing and innovative promotional strategies to strengthen its brand presence [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Hars anticipates a decline in profit margins in Q3 2025 due to production ramp-up in Thailand, but expects profitability to recover by 2026 [4]. - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are expected to be 140 million, 270 million, and 370 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.30, 0.58, and 0.78 yuan [4]. - The estimated reasonable valuation for the company is between 8.77 and 9.94 yuan per share, with a PE ratio of 15-17 times in 2026 [4].