券商资管大变局：从“抢牌照”到“撤申请”

Core Insights - The securities industry reported strong growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with 42 listed brokerages achieving a revenue increase of over 42% year-on-year and a net profit growth of over 62% [1][2] - However, the asset management (AM) sector lagged significantly, with a mere growth rate of 2.43%, indicating deeper industry concerns and challenges [1][2] Revenue Performance - Total revenue for the 42 listed brokerages reached 419.56 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 42.55% [2] - The self-operated business accounted for 44.54% of total revenue, while brokerage services contributed 26.64%, together making up over 70% of the revenue [2] - The AM business's growth was starkly contrasted by other sectors, with brokerage services leading at a 74.64% growth rate, followed by interest and self-operated businesses at 54.52% and 43.83%, respectively [2] Institutional Performance - The top three firms in AM revenue were CITIC Securities, GF Securities, and Guotai Junan, with revenues of 8.703 billion yuan, 5.661 billion yuan, and 4.273 billion yuan, respectively [3] - Only 14 out of the 42 listed brokerages reported positive growth in their AM business, indicating a significant divide within the industry [3] Challenges in Asset Management - The AM sector faces dual pressures from scale and profitability, with existing large collective products undergoing a standardization transformation, impacting management scale and revenue [4] - Intense competition from public funds and bank wealth management subsidiaries further constrains the AM sector, which is still developing its active management capabilities [4] - The decline in interest rates and frequent credit risks have limited the supply of high-yield assets, challenging previous investment strategies reliant on high returns [4] Strategic Shifts - A notable trend has emerged where brokerages are withdrawing their applications for public fund licenses, contrasting sharply with the previous rush to apply [5][6] - This withdrawal is seen as a rational choice based on a deep assessment of resources, market conditions, and profit models, signaling a shift from a "license-driven" to a "capability-driven" model [6] - The consensus is forming that public fund licenses are not a panacea, with private fund operations emphasizing professional services and customized solutions becoming more appealing for certain brokerages [6] Recovery in Private Asset Management - Despite the withdrawal from public fund applications, the private asset management sector is experiencing a resurgence, with the scale of private fund products reaching 5.73 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 270 billion yuan from the end of 2024 [7] - The growth in private fund product registrations indicates the necessity for differentiated strategies, focusing on multi-asset allocation and innovative strategies [7] Future Growth Drivers - Future growth in the AM sector is expected to be driven by two main factors: the completion of public fund transformations leading to secondary growth, and the stabilization and differentiation of private asset management offerings [8] - The focus will likely shift towards low-volatility, high-liquidity products, as well as alternative investments and cross-border allocations [8] Competitive Dynamics - Successful firms like Changcheng Securities and Guojin Securities have achieved over 30% growth by upgrading their "fixed income plus" strategies and integrating financial technology into their operations [9] - The emphasis is on a diversified product matrix and precise timing in investment strategies to capture macro opportunities [9][10] - The integration of AI technology into research and decision-making processes is becoming a core competitive advantage for asset management firms [10]