Global Stocks Hold Steady After Four-Day Rally: Markets Wrap

Market Overview - Global equities showed resilience after four days of gains, driven by expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates more quickly than previously anticipated [1] - The MSCI All Country World Index reduced its November decline to 0.4%, recovering from a nearly 4% drop earlier in the month [1] - US markets were closed for Thanksgiving, while European and Asian benchmarks experienced modest movements [1] Investor Sentiment - There is a noticeable return of risk appetite, as evidenced by Bitcoin trading above $91,000 for the first time in a week [2] - Gold prices fluctuated, and the US dollar paused its two-day decline [2] Federal Reserve Expectations - Money markets are pricing in an approximately 80% chance of a quarter-point interest rate cut next month, with expectations for three additional cuts by the end of 2026 [3] - This marks a shift from just over a week ago when traders anticipated only three cuts in total [3] - The market sentiment reflects renewed optimism following concerns over high tech valuations that previously impacted equities [3] Year-End Rally Outlook - EFG Asset Management Switzerland's CEO expressed optimism for a classic year-end rally, supported by a stable macro environment and a decent corporate earnings outlook [4] - The anticipated lagged effects of rate cuts are expected to provide additional support to the market [4] Regional Market Performance - Japanese and South Korean equities outperformed their regional counterparts, with technology shares leading the gains [4] - In Europe, Germany's DAX index increased by 0.3%, driven by a 13% rise in Puma SE due to takeover interest from multiple bidders [4] UK Market Reaction - UK gilts experienced a pullback after a rally following the Autumn budget, where the Chancellor of the Exchequer announced a larger fiscal buffer [5] - Despite the positive sentiment, the tax-raising measures introduced may overshadow economic growth prospects [5] - The pound and FTSE 100 remained relatively unchanged [5] Fiscal Policy Insights - ABN AMRO's head of macro research noted that the UK government took necessary steps to maintain bond market confidence, despite risks associated with the fiscal consolidation [6] - The current measures build upon previous significant efforts in fiscal policy [6]