（国际观察）英国财政预算谋求“微妙平衡”

Core Viewpoint - The UK government's new fiscal budget aims to achieve a "delicate balance" between fiscal prudence and pressing social demands, focusing on tax adjustments and targeted spending to alleviate public pressure while addressing underlying economic challenges [1][2]. Tax Policy - The budget includes structural tax adjustments to enhance fiscal revenue, such as extending the freeze on the personal income tax threshold until the 2030-31 fiscal year, which is expected to naturally expand the tax base due to inflation [1][2]. - The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) estimates that these measures will raise the tax revenue to 38% of GDP by the 2030-31 fiscal year, a historical high, and increase fiscal buffer from £9.9 billion (approximately ¥91.08 billion) to £21.7 billion (approximately ¥199.64 billion) [2]. - The extension of the tax threshold freeze is projected to push nearly 2 million taxpayers into higher tax brackets, generating an additional £8 billion (approximately ¥73.6 billion) in revenue for the 2029-30 fiscal year [2]. Spending Policy - The budget emphasizes social spending, including the removal of the two-child benefit cap, wage increases for citizens, and average energy cost reductions for ordinary families, which have received some positive public feedback [2][3]. - However, the increase in social spending may not fully offset the rising tax burden, with 63% of the public believing current taxes are too high [3]. Economic Outlook - The OBR has adjusted the economic growth forecast for 2025 from 1% to 1.5%, but has significantly lowered the 2026 growth forecast from 1.9% to 1.4%, indicating uneven economic growth dynamics [3][4]. - Experts warn that the budget heavily relies on the assumption of a return to expected inflation levels, with potential upward pressures from energy prices and geopolitical factors [3][4]. Structural Challenges - The budget's approach of increasing taxes for future revenue while addressing immediate spending needs raises concerns about its sustainability, as it does not tackle deeper structural issues within the fiscal framework [3][4]. - The OBR's premature report leak prior to the budget announcement highlighted uncertainties in policy implementation and market reactions [3].