Citigroup vs. PNC Financial: Which Stock Has a Bigger Upside?

Core Insights - The article discusses the contrasting strategies of Citigroup and PNC Financial in a competitive banking environment, highlighting their respective challenges and opportunities influenced by economic conditions and internal strategies [1][2]. Citigroup Overview - Under CEO Jane Fraser, Citigroup is implementing a multi-year strategy to streamline operations and focus on core businesses, including exiting consumer banking in 14 markets across Asia and EMEA, with nine exits completed [3][4]. - Recent initiatives include integrating the Retail Banking unit into the Wealth business, elevating U.S. Consumer Cards, and selling its Russian banking unit, which is part of a broader withdrawal strategy [4]. - Citigroup plans to sell a 25% stake in Banamex, with a full divestiture expected, and is winding down its Korean consumer banking operations while preparing for an IPO of its Mexican operations [4]. - The bank has overhauled its operating model, reducing bureaucracy and complexity, and plans to cut 20,000 jobs (about 8% of its workforce) by 2026, having already reduced headcount by over 10,000 [5]. - Citigroup expects revenues to exceed $84 billion in 2025, with a projected 4-5% CAGR through 2026, and has raised its net interest income (NII) growth guidance to 5.5% for 2025 [6]. PNC Financial Overview - PNC Financial is focusing on expansion through targeted acquisitions and partnerships, contrasting with Citigroup's contraction strategy [7]. - The bank has agreed to acquire FirstBank Holding Company, which will enhance its presence in Arizona and increase its branch network [8]. - PNC is also expanding its branch initiative to a total investment of about $2 billion, planning to open over 300 branches and hire over 2,000 employees by 2030 [11]. - PNC's NII is projected to rise 6.5% year-over-year in 2025, supported by improving lending activity and stabilizing funding costs [12]. Performance and Valuation Comparison - Year-to-date, shares of PNC Financial and Citigroup have risen 3.2% and 49.7%, respectively, compared to the industry's growth of 30.3% [13]. - PNC is trading at a 12-month forward P/E of 10.90X, while Citigroup is at 10.50X, both below the industry average of 14.27X [17][19]. - Citigroup has increased its dividend by 7.1% to $0.60 per share, yielding 2.34%, while PNC raised its dividend by 6% to $1.70 per share, yielding 3.54% [19]. - Earnings estimates for PNC indicate a rise of 14.7% and 11.4% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, while Citigroup's estimates show a jump of 27.7% and 31.1% for the same years [22][26]. Strategic Outlook - Both banks are executing their strategies effectively, with PNC providing higher dividend income and steady earnings, while Citigroup is focused on restructuring and reallocating resources towards higher-growth areas [27]. - Citigroup's transformation is expected to unlock capital and improve profitability, with a more attractive valuation compared to PNC [28].