Why Is MSCI (MSCI) Down 0.9% Since Last Earnings Report?

Core Insights - MSCI's Q3 2025 adjusted earnings per share were $4.47, exceeding estimates by 2.29% and reflecting a 15.8% year-over-year increase [2] - Revenues for Q3 2025 reached $793.4 million, a 9.5% increase year-over-year, but fell short of consensus estimates by 0.72% [2] - The company has seen a downward trend in estimates over the past month, indicating potential challenges ahead [13][15] Financial Performance - Recurring subscription revenues were $579.1 million, up 7.9% year-over-year, contributing 73% to total revenues [3] - Asset-based fees increased by 17.1% year-over-year to $197.5 million, accounting for 24.9% of revenues [3] - Non-recurring revenues decreased by 13.4% year-over-year to $16.9 million, contributing 2.1% to total revenues [3] Segment Performance - Index revenues grew 11.4% year-over-year to $451.2 million, driven by market-cap-weighted Index products and ETFs [4] - Analytics operating revenues increased by 5.7% year-over-year to $182.2 million, with recurring subscriptions rising by 6% [5] - The Sustainability and Climate segment reported revenues of $90.1 million, a 7.7% increase year-over-year, despite a 31.2% decline in non-recurring revenues [6] Operating Metrics - Adjusted EBITDA rose 9.7% year-over-year to $494.4 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 62.3% [8] - Total operating expenses increased by 6.9% year-over-year to $345.7 million, primarily due to higher compensation costs [9] - Operating income improved by 11.6% year-over-year to $447.7 million, with an operating margin of 56.4% [9] Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - As of September 30, 2025, total cash and cash equivalents were $400.1 million, up from $347.3 million as of June 30, 2025 [10] - Total debt increased to $5.6 billion, with a debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio of 3 times [10] - Free cash flow for the quarter was $423.3 million, a 7.4% increase year-over-year [11] Guidance and Outlook - MSCI maintains its 2025 guidance, expecting total operating expenses between $1.415 billion and $1.445 billion [12] - The company anticipates adjusted EBITDA expenses to be between $1.230 billion and $1.250 billion [12] - The overall direction of estimate revisions suggests a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) for MSCI, indicating an expectation of in-line returns in the near term [15]