BigBear.ai vs. Leidos: Which Defense-Focused AI Stock Should You Buy?

Core Insights - Artificial intelligence is significantly transforming the defense sector, with both emerging companies like BigBear.ai and established firms like Leidos competing for federal contracts [1][2] - BigBear.ai is transitioning to a scalable AI platform model, while Leidos integrates AI into its existing services [2][9] BigBear.ai Overview - BigBear.ai is acquiring Ask Sage, a secure generative AI platform, which has over 100,000 users across 16,000 government teams, expected to drive $25 million in annual recurring revenue (ARR) by 2025 [4][8] - The company reported a record $456.6 million in cash and investments, enhancing its liquidity for strategic initiatives [5][8] - Despite a 20% year-over-year revenue decline due to lower Army program volumes and government shutdown impacts, BigBear.ai's backlog reached $376 million, indicating potential for future growth [6][7] Leidos Overview - Leidos reported $4.47 billion in Q3 revenue, a 7% increase year-over-year, with a total backlog of $47.7 billion [9][10] - The company secured several significant contracts, including a $2.2 billion classified intelligence award and a $540 million AI-enabled counterterrorism software contract [10] - Leidos is focusing on AI-driven mission software and digital modernization, embedding AI across various solutions [11][13] Stock Performance Comparison - BigBear.ai shares surged 180% over the past year, outperforming the broader technology sector and S&P 500 [14] - Leidos shares increased by 16.1%, slightly exceeding the S&P 500 but lagging behind the technology sector [15] Valuation Insights - BigBear.ai trades at a forward price-to-sales multiple of 15.53, significantly higher than Leidos' multiple of 1.37, reflecting market expectations for high growth [18] - Analyst estimates for BigBear.ai show a narrowing loss per share outlook, while Leidos' EPS estimates indicate stable growth [19][21] Investment Considerations - Leidos offers stability and consistent profitability, supported by a large backlog and expanding AI capabilities [25] - BigBear.ai presents greater near-term upside potential due to its transformation and strengthened liquidity position [25][26]