消费提质扩容引领新供给

Core Insights - Consumption is identified as the main engine for economic growth and a key indicator of public well-being, with significant policies implemented during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period to boost domestic demand [1][2] Group 1: Consumption Market Growth - The total retail sales of consumer goods in China increased from 39.1 trillion yuan in 2020 to 48.3 trillion yuan in 2024, solidifying its position as the world's second-largest consumer market [1] - The average contribution rate of final consumption to economic growth over the past four years reached 56.2%, an increase of 8.6 percentage points compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" period [1] - By 2024, the per capita disposable income is projected to be 41,314 yuan, and per capita consumption expenditure is expected to reach 28,227 yuan, showing significant improvement since 2020 [1] Group 2: Policy Impact and Consumption Potential - The "old-for-new" policy has effectively driven sales, generating 2.9 trillion yuan in sales and benefiting approximately 400 million people with subsidies [2] - The number of new energy vehicles is expected to grow 5.4 times from 2020 to 2024, indicating a strong trend towards green consumption [2] - New consumption formats such as live streaming sales and virtual reality are rapidly emerging, with online retail sales maintaining the top position globally [2] Group 3: Consumption Structure and Quality - Service consumption is leading in growth, with an average annual increase of 9.6% in service expenditure from 2020 to 2024 [2] - There is a notable shift towards quality and personalized consumption, with smart health products, smart accessories, and educational toys showing annual compound growth rates of 115%, 131%, and 189% respectively [2] - Emerging sectors like the ice and snow economy are expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan this year, while the silver economy is projected to reach 12.3 trillion yuan in the future, highlighting new growth areas in consumption [2]