兴业证券：人民币升值期间A股如何表现？

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB exchange rate has surpassed 7.08 against the US dollar as of November 26, marking a new high since October 14 of the previous year, with an appreciation of nearly 5% from the low of 7.43 during the "reciprocal tariffs" period in April [1][3] Exchange Rate Dynamics - The recent strengthening of the RMB is driven by several factors, including a weak US dollar, resilient domestic fundamentals, enhanced competitiveness of major economies, and the central bank's commitment to stabilizing the exchange rate [3] - The outlook for RMB appreciation remains solid through 2026, supported by a "loose US, stable China" monetary policy environment [3] Historical Context and Market Correlation - Since the 2015 "exchange rate reform," there has been a significant positive correlation between RMB exchange rates and A-share market performance, influenced by economic fundamentals, monetary policy, market risk appetite, and liquidity [3] - During the RMB appreciation cycles of 2017-2018 Q1 and 2020 Q2-2021, the A-share market experienced bullish trends, with foreign capital playing a crucial role in driving market performance [3][6][9] Sector Allocation Insights - In Q3 2025, the main sectors attracting northbound capital include power equipment, electronics, pharmaceuticals, banking, food and beverage, and machinery, with notable increases in allocation for electronics, power equipment, non-ferrous metals, machinery, and communications [1]