Crude Prices Gain on Doubts About a Russian-Ukrainian Peace Deal

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices are experiencing slight increases, driven by dollar weakness and geopolitical tensions related to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict [2][3] - OPEC has revised its Q3 global oil market estimates from a deficit to a surplus, indicating a shift in market dynamics [5][6] Price Movements - January WTI crude oil is up by +0.08 (+0.14%) and January RBOB gasoline is up by +0.0110 (+0.61%) [1] - Crude oil prices are supported by reduced exports from Russia, with shipments falling to 1.7 million bpd, the lowest in over three years [3] Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical risks, including a potential US military buildup against Venezuela, are providing underlying support for oil prices [4] - Ukraine's targeting of Russian refineries has significantly impacted Russia's refining capacity, reducing it by 13% to 20% and curbing production by up to 1.1 million bpd [3] Supply and Production Dynamics - OPEC has announced a production increase of +137,000 bpd for December but plans to pause further hikes in Q1-2026 due to an emerging global oil surplus [6] - The EIA has raised its 2025 US crude production estimate to 13.59 million bpd, reflecting stronger-than-expected US production [5] Market Adjustments - The EIA reported larger-than-expected increases in crude oil and products, which has limited gains in crude prices [2] - OPEC's October crude production rose by +50,000 bpd to 29.07 million bpd, marking the highest level in 2.5 years [6]