银河证券有色行业2026年度策略：势如破竹确立新周期 行业景气将继续上行

Core Viewpoint - The report from Galaxy Securities indicates that the non-ferrous metal industry is expected to stabilize after hitting a bottom in 2024, with a new upward cycle anticipated due to various macroeconomic factors and policy changes [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - The non-ferrous metal prices and industry performance are projected to improve continuously, establishing a new upward cycle in the industry [1] - The anticipated recovery in macro expectations following the Geneva Agreement between China and the U.S. in 2025 is expected to further support this upward trend [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Continued interest in gold is expected as the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, leading to increased allocations in gold by global central banks and investors, which will support mid-term gold price increases [1] - A shortage of copper mines is expected to persist, with improved macro expectations and liquidity from the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, alongside new demand from large-scale AI data center constructions, likely driving copper prices higher [1] - The implementation of export quota policies in the Democratic Republic of Congo is anticipated to restrict global cobalt supply, leading to a significant increase in cobalt prices as domestic inventories are depleted [1] - Tightened domestic policies affecting supply and exports are expected to change the industry landscape, with steady demand growth leading to a stabilization and recovery in rare earth prices, significantly improving corporate profitability in the rare earth permanent magnet sector [1]