Polymarket：近四成投资者押注AI泡沫将于2026年底破灭

Core Insights - Polymarket has launched a betting platform on the question of when the "AI bubble will burst," with specific indicators set for settlement [1] - The market sentiment has shifted from optimism to caution regarding the AI sector, as reflected in the betting prices [1] Group 1: Betting Indicators - The indicators for determining the burst of the AI bubble include a 50% drop in Nvidia's stock price, a 40% decline in the semiconductor ETF (SOXX), or bankruptcy/acquisition announcements from OpenAI or Anthropic [1] - Additional indicators involve supply chain and computing power prices, such as H100 GPU rental prices falling below $1 for five consecutive days, or a 50% drop in stock prices of major AI chip manufacturers like TSMC, ASML, Broadcom, and AMD [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Betting Trends - The total amount wagered on this betting platform has approached $150,000, with only 2% of participants believing the AI bubble will burst by the end of this year [1] - A significant 15% of bettors think the AI bubble will burst by March next year, while nearly 40% predict it could happen by the end of 2026 [1] - The current prices for "Buy Yes" and "Buy No" bets reflect a cautious market sentiment, with prices at 2.6 cents and 97.7 cents respectively for this year, and 39 cents and 63 cents for the end of 2026 [1]