矿端紧缺逻辑延续，金融环境利好大宗商品价格

Core Viewpoints - The copper price experienced three rises and three falls from January to November 2025, showing a fluctuating upward trend, with a range of $8,539 to $11,068 per ton and an average price of $9,704 per ton, representing a year-on-year increase of 6%, and is expected to break historical highs by the end of the year [2][3] - The main factors influencing copper prices in 2025 return to traditional frameworks, highly correlated with commodity attributes, while financial attributes show a negative correlation [2][3] - The demand for copper remains robust, but supply sentiment reacts more strongly than the actual fundamental performance [3][4] Supply and Demand Analysis - From January to August 2025, global copper supply and demand maintained a tight balance, with an average monthly supply surplus of 0.8 thousand tons [2][3] - The global refined copper demand in 2024 is projected to have China accounting for 58% and the U.S. for 6%, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2% from 2016 to 2024 [3] - The refined copper production in China and the U.S. for 2024 is estimated at 1,557 million tons and 162 million tons, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 1.3% and 0.5% [3] Price Forecast for 2026 - The copper market is expected to be in a state of tight balance in 2026, with a supply gap of 50 thousand tons, and global supply projected at 28.97 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3%, while demand is expected to reach 29.01 million tons, also a year-on-year increase of 3% [4] - The copper price is anticipated to continue its upward trend, potentially reaching an average of $10,500 per ton in 2026 due to tightening supply and sustained demand [4] Investment Strategy - For upstream mining resources, companies with significant resource releases and development advantages are expected to benefit, with recommendations for Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum [5] - In the downstream sector, companies with high barriers to processing and strong performance in downstream industries are favored, with recommendations for Hailiang Co., Ltd. and attention to companies like Bowei Alloys and Srey New Materials [6]