油价料创2023年以来最长月度连跌，市场聚焦OPEC+会议与乌克兰局势

Core Insights - Crude oil prices are experiencing the longest monthly decline in over two years, with traders closely monitoring the upcoming OPEC+ meeting and U.S.-led diplomatic efforts to end the Ukraine conflict [1][3] - WTI crude futures are hovering around $59 per barrel, while Brent crude futures are above $63, with U.S. crude contracts expected to record a fourth consecutive monthly decline, marking the longest streak since Q1 2023 [1] - OPEC+ members are likely to maintain their current production freeze until early 2026, with the meeting focusing on a long-term assessment of member production capacities [1] Market Trends - U.S. crude prices have fallen 18% year-to-date, driven by market expectations of a supply surplus following OPEC+'s potential production increases and rising output from non-OPEC+ producers [3] - JPMorgan forecasts a supply surplus of 2.8 million barrels per day in the oil market by 2026, decreasing to 2.7 million barrels per day in 2027 [3] Geopolitical Factors - Russian President Putin indicated that a ceasefire proposal from former U.S. President Trump could serve as a basis for future agreements, signaling openness to negotiations [3] - The resolution of the Ukraine conflict could significantly impact the oil market, as Russia is a major oil producer currently facing severe Western sanctions, with any agreement potentially leading to a relaxation of sanctions and a resumption of oil flows to buyers in China, India, and Turkey [3]