煤价延续稳中偏强走势，全市场唯一煤炭ETF（515220）昨日净流入超5000万元

Core Viewpoint - The coal prices have risen unexpectedly since the fourth quarter due to better-than-expected demand and a general decline in supply, with forecasts indicating a stable to strong price trend through the end of the year and into 2026 [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - In October, the electricity generation from thermal power plants increased by 7.3% year-on-year, while domestic raw coal production decreased by 2.3% year-on-year [1] - Coal imports have declined by approximately 9% both month-on-month and year-on-year, leading to an improved supply-demand balance [1] - Inventory levels across various segments remain lower than the same period last year, with seasonal demand expected to rise starting late November [1] Price Trends - The demand for thermal coal has exceeded expectations since October, coupled with a decline in supply, resulting in significant price increases [1] - The winter storage demand and strict safety regulations in production areas are expected to support prices, maintaining a stable to strong outlook [1] - For coking coal, despite entering a low-demand season, the rigid production of pig iron and historically low coal mine inventories will support prices, with stability anticipated [1] Investment Opportunities - The coal sector currently shows significant valuation and dividend yield advantages, with leading companies offering dividend yields generally between 4% and 5% [1] - The coal ETF (515220), which tracks the CSI Coal Index (399998), has a scale exceeding 10 billion, and the coal sector's dividend yield has surpassed 5.3% over the past 12 months [1] - In the context of declining risk-free interest rates, the investment value of the coal ETF (515220) is highlighted, suggesting a strategy of gradual accumulation to capitalize on investment opportunities in the coal sector [1]