日本经济与政策面 多重矛盾发酵

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate continues to show a strong oscillating pattern, influenced by both internal economic pressures in Japan and external factors such as U.S. Federal Reserve policy expectations [1][2]. Internal Factors - Japan's economic fundamentals are under pressure, with Q3 GDP declining at an annualized rate of 1.8%, marking a return to negative growth after six quarters. Key contributors to this decline include shrinking exports and a significant drop in private residential investment [1]. - The Japanese government's economic stimulus plan of 21.3 trillion yen raises concerns about potential fiscal deterioration, leading to a "sell Japan" trade sentiment that pressures both the yen and Japanese government bonds [1]. - The Bank of Japan's cautious approach to normalizing monetary policy is evident, with ongoing political pressures causing market concerns about the pace of interest rate hikes [1]. External Factors - Market expectations indicate an 84.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, contributing to a relatively stable USD/JPY interest rate differential [2]. - Morgan Stanley suggests that if the Fed initiates a series of rate cuts, the USD/JPY could depreciate by nearly 10% over the next few months, potentially reaching the 140 level by Q1 2026 [2]. - The recent weakness of the yen has drawn significant attention from Japanese authorities, with Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki mentioning the possibility of intervention, and the Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister emphasizing close monitoring of speculative currency behavior [2]. Technical Analysis - The USD/JPY is currently trading within a critical range of 156-157, with resistance near the 160 intervention level and support around 155.80 [3]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at approximately 58, indicating that there is still potential for upward movement, although momentum appears to be waning [3]. - Key signals to watch include potential currency market intervention by Japanese authorities and the outcomes of the Federal Reserve's December policy decision and the Bank of Japan's rate meeting on December 19 [3].