【财经分析】假期流动性稀薄 美元在降息押注中难见起色

Core Viewpoint - The market is increasingly betting on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, leading to a decline in the US dollar index from a six-month high, with expectations of the largest weekly drop since July [1][2]. Group 1: Rate Cut Expectations - Market participants are anticipating a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, supported by dovish signals from key Fed officials [2]. - Morgan Stanley has revised its policy forecast, now expecting two rate cuts of 25 basis points each in December and January, influenced by recent statements from Fed officials [2]. - The internal policy divergence within the Federal Reserve has reached its highest level in nearly eight years, with potential opposition to a December rate cut [2]. Group 2: Market Liquidity and Trading Activity - Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, trading volumes in the forex market have decreased, leading to a lack of significant market movements [3]. - Analysts warn that the thin liquidity could lead to limited rebound potential for the dollar, despite the prevailing downward pressure [3]. Group 3: Future Dollar Strategy - Analysts suggest that "longing the dollar" may not be a core trading strategy for 2026, especially if dovish candidates for the Fed chair position are appointed [4]. - The potential nomination of Kevin Hassett, who is seen as favoring rate cuts, could further weaken the dollar [4]. Group 4: Candidate Dynamics for Fed Chair - The nomination of the next Fed chair is expected to be announced by President Trump before Christmas, with Hassett being a leading candidate [5]. - The competition between Hassett and more conservative candidates like Waller will significantly influence future interest rate paths [5].