美元锚定能源 政策与供需主导油价走向

Group 1 - The US dollar index experienced significant fluctuations influenced by economic data interpretations and diverging Federal Reserve policies, with a low of 99.0050 and a high of 99.6842 during the trading session [1] - Recent US economic data showed mixed results, with core durable goods orders slowing down while initial jobless claims fell to a seven-month low of 216,000, indicating labor market resilience [1] - The Federal Reserve officials expressed increasing divergence regarding December policy, with dovish members supporting rate cuts while hawkish members opposed them due to inflation concerns [1] Group 2 - The dollar's recent pullback is primarily driven by expectations of policy easing rather than a retreat from safe-haven assets, as evidenced by the relative strength of the yen against higher beta European currencies [2] - The Thanksgiving holiday in the US led to a sharp decline in dollar liquidity, amplifying volatility in the yen and raising expectations of potential intervention by Japanese authorities [2] - The dollar index is currently at a critical decision-making stage, testing a dual support area formed by the rising trend line and the 200-day EMA around 99.40 [3] Group 3 - If the bulls successfully defend the trend line and the 200-day EMA support, and hawkish comments lead to a cooling of rate cut expectations, the dollar index could rebound to 99.98 and challenge the recent high of 100.38 [4] - Conversely, if the index breaks below the 99.40 support and the probability of a December rate cut rises above 90%, it may drop to 99.10, weakening the short-term upward structure established since early October [4] - The effectiveness of the trend line support and changes in policy expectations remain critical observation points for the future direction of the dollar index [4]