中长期大额存单正在消失：多家银行已无5年期产品在售，3年期“额度紧张”或“售罄”

Core Viewpoint - The long-term large-denomination certificates of deposit (CDs), once seen as a tool for attracting deposits, are gradually disappearing from the market, particularly the 5-year CDs, as banks aim to optimize their liability structure and stabilize net interest margins [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Current Market Situation - Major state-owned banks and several joint-stock banks have removed 5-year large-denomination CDs from their apps, while 3-year CDs are still available but often marked as "sold out" or "in limited supply" [2][3]. - The interest rates for the remaining 3-year large-denomination CDs are concentrated in the range of 1.5% to 1.8% [2]. Bank Strategies - Banks are actively reducing high-cost long-term large-denomination CDs as a direct method to optimize their liability structure and stabilize net interest margins, which currently stand at 1.42%, remaining at historical lows [1][3]. - The net interest margins of most A-share banks have shown a downward trend, with state-owned banks experiencing an average decline of about 15 basis points [3]. Future Expectations - There is an expectation of further interest rate declines, prompting banks to reduce the issuance of long-term large-denomination CDs to avoid being locked into high-cost deposits as rates fall [3]. - Similar adjustments in deposit structures are observed in various local small and medium-sized banks, with some banks announcing the cancellation of 5-year fixed deposit products and lowering interest rates on other terms [3][4]. Investment Trends - Since the establishment of the market-oriented deposit rate adjustment mechanism in April 2022, major banks have reduced deposit rates in several rounds, with the latest cuts occurring in May 2023 [5]. - As interest rates decline, there is a shift in investor behavior towards diversified asset allocation, with a growing interest in low-risk investment products such as government bonds and bank wealth management products [5]. - According to a recent survey, 62.3% of urban residents prefer "more savings," a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous quarter, while 18.5% prefer "more investments," an increase of 5.6 percentage points [5]. Future Growth Projections - A report from CITIC Securities anticipates that the growth of wealth management scale will continue to be driven by the "migration" of deposits towards various asset management products, with an expected growth of at least 10% in 2026 [6]. - If the wealth management scale reaches 34 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, it is projected to reach approximately 38 trillion yuan in 2026 [6].