美联储降息预期飙升叠加美元走弱趋势，黄金股ETF(517520)涨超黄金凸显金价放大器特征

Core Insights - The gold industry is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the CSI Gold Industry Index rising by 1.09% as of November 28, 2025, and several key stocks showing significant gains, including Shenhua A (up 5.49%) and China Gold International (up 3.61%) [1] - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, has seen an increase in holdings by 4.57 tons, reflecting growing institutional confidence in gold and supporting upward price movements [2] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have risen significantly, with an 86.9% probability of a 25 basis point cut, which is expected to bolster gold prices by reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold [4] Market Performance - The gold stock ETF has increased by 19.90% over the past three months, indicating strong market sentiment towards gold investments [1] - Spot gold prices have shown notable volatility, recently surpassing $4180 per ounce, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and weak U.S. economic data [5] - The precious metals sector is leading the commodity market, with the South China Precious Metals Index rising by 1%, primarily due to the anticipated rate cuts and a weakening dollar [5] Investment Sentiment - The market is reassessing the balance between rate cut expectations and geopolitical risk, with ongoing expectations for rate cuts likely to provide long-term upward momentum for gold prices [4] - The current macroeconomic environment is favorable for precious metals, with expectations of lower interest rates and a declining dollar supporting gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [5]