李扬：中国金融结构迎积极变化 资本市场发展迎新机遇

Core Insights - The 2025 Analyst Conference has commenced, gathering top analysts, fund managers, and scholars to explore investment opportunities amidst changing market conditions [1] Group 1: Financial Structure Changes - China's financial structure is undergoing positive changes, characterized by adjustments in social financing structure and a continuous decline in interest rates, creating new opportunities for capital market development [3] - In the first ten months of this year, the change in social financing structure is notable, with RMB deposits reaching 325.55 trillion and loans at 270.61 trillion, resulting in an increase of 8.35 trillion in deposits over loans [3] - The trend of "disintermediation" has persisted for three years, with M2 continuing to grow and M1 increasing at a faster rate, indicating improved monetary liquidity [3] Group 2: Interest Rate Trends - The decline in interest rates has become a significant norm in China's financial operations, with the 10-year and 30-year government bond yields consistently decreasing since 2015 [4] - As of November 24, 2025, the 10-year government bond yield is at 1.8210% and the 30-year yield at 2.1586%, with the average interest rate on new loans dropping to 3.24% [4] - The continuous reduction in the reserve requirement ratio has further facilitated the decline in interest rates, influenced by global trends of low or negative interest rates [4] Group 3: Capital Market Development - The development of asset management and mergers and acquisitions (M&A) is crucial for capital market growth, with the scale of the wealth management market expected to exceed 32 trillion by 2025 [5] - There is a rising demand for equity and mixed-asset financial products among investors, while M&A has become an important adjustment mechanism in the era of stock economy [5] - The introduction of "six guidelines" for M&A has relaxed conditions for targets and simplified review processes, supporting cross-industry mergers and technology acquisition [6]