复旦大学吴心伯：未来国际形势五大走向，5年以后金砖国家机制影响力可能超过G7

Core Insights - The 2025 Analyst Conference highlighted five major trends in the international landscape that will impact investment strategies in the medium to long term [1] Group 1: Economic Shifts - The United States is experiencing a decline in its economic position globally, leading to a capital outflow as international investors seek new opportunities, influenced by Federal Reserve policies and economic risks from previous administrations [3] - China's political and economic status is rising, with opportunities to enhance its influence in multilateral institutions as the U.S. withdraws from these platforms, aiming for a more equitable global agenda [3][4] - Russia is expected to strengthen its strategic position in Europe post-Ukraine conflict, though its ability to convert this into economic strength will depend on domestic policy adjustments [4] Group 2: Regional Developments - Europe is facing a challenging transitional period that could last a decade or two, marking a significant shift from the post-Cold War peace dividend [4] - The rise of the Global South, particularly through the BRICS mechanism, is anticipated to create a golden development period over the next five years, potentially surpassing the influence of the G7 [4][5] Group 3: Future Outlook - The external environment for China is expected to improve significantly over the next five years compared to the previous decade, presenting a favorable outlook for investment opportunities [5]