债市用脚投票！加息预期升温拖累下两年期日债拍卖遇冷 投资者焦点转向植田和男讲话

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has intensified, leading to a decline in demand for Japanese two-year government bonds, as evidenced by lower bid ratios and increased tail spreads in recent auctions [1][3][4]. Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - The bid-to-cover ratio for the recent two-year bond auction was 3.53, down from 4.35 in the previous auction and below the 12-month average of 3.66 [1]. - The tail spread for the auction reached 0.012, significantly higher than the previous auction's 0.002, indicating weaker demand [1]. - The yield on two-year government bonds rose to 0.977%, the highest level since 2008, reflecting market reactions to the BOJ's potential policy changes [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Tokyo's core consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.8% year-on-year in November, slightly above the median forecast of 2.7%, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures [4]. - Industrial output in October increased by 1.4%, far exceeding market expectations of a 0.6% decline, indicating stronger economic performance [4]. - Early signs from labor negotiations suggest robust wage growth, with Japan's largest labor union aiming for a 5% increase in 2026, supporting the case for further rate hikes [4]. Group 3: Central Bank Officials' Statements - Former BOJ official Kazuo Ueda indicated that the recent depreciation of the yen increases the likelihood of a rate hike in December, suggesting that no significant negative signals are needed to justify such a move [5]. - Political pressure to maintain low interest rates appears to be easing, with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's administration likely to support BOJ's rate normalization efforts [5]. - New BOJ policy committee member Masayoshi Amamiya noted that the timing for a rate hike is approaching, reflecting a shift in the central bank's stance [5]. Group 4: Investor Sentiment and Future Outlook - Investors are cautious ahead of BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's upcoming speech, which is anticipated to provide insights into the central bank's interest rate trajectory [6]. - Concerns over Japan's fiscal situation, including a projected supplementary budget of approximately 18.3 trillion yen for FY2025, are contributing to investor apprehension [6]. - Major dealers are requesting increased issuance of shorter-term bonds while reducing long-term bond issuance, indicating a cautious market sentiment [7].