李扬：利率下行成为我国金融运行的重要常态

Group 1 - The 2025 Analyst Conference has commenced, gathering top researchers, fund managers, and scholars to explore investment opportunities amidst economic cycles [1] - Li Yang highlighted that the downward trend in interest rates has become a significant norm in China's financial operations, driven by factors such as declining global potential growth rates and changes in monetary policy paradigms [3][4] - As of October this year, the structure of social financing has notably changed, with RMB deposits reaching 325.55 trillion yuan and loans at 270.61 trillion yuan, indicating a net increase in deposits over loans [3] Group 2 - The continuous decline in interest rates since 2015 has led to lower yields on 10-year and 30-year government bonds, with the latest figures showing yields at 1.8210% and 2.1586% respectively [4] - The persistent reduction in the reserve requirement ratio has further contributed to the decline in interest rates, aligning with global trends of ultra-low or negative interest rates in regions like the US, Japan, and the Eurozone [4] - The decline in interest rates has multiple impacts, including reduced financial costs for the real economy and a historical low net interest margin for commercial banks at 1.42%, prompting financial institutions to transform [4] Group 3 - The development of the capital market has been prioritized, addressing the long-standing issues of underdeveloped capital markets and low direct financing ratios in China [4] - Asset management and mergers & acquisitions are identified as key drivers for capital market development, with the scale of the wealth management market expected to exceed 32 trillion yuan by 2025 [4][5] - The introduction of policies to relax conditions for merger targets and simplify review processes supports cross-industry mergers and acquisitions, enhancing the vitality of the capital market [5]