Platinum On Edge As A Long-Term Deficit Flips To Surplus

Core Viewpoint - The significant price rise of platinum, which has increased by 75% since the beginning of the year, may be coming to an end as a multi-year supply deficit is expected to shift into a modest surplus next year [1] Industry Summary - The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) forecasts a transition from a 692,000-ounce shortfall in 2023 to a 20,000-ounce surplus in 2024, indicating a shift in market dynamics that could impact investor sentiment [1][6] - Platinum, along with palladium, has extensive industrial applications, particularly in jewelry and as catalysts in internal combustion engines [3] - The rise in popularity of electric vehicles (EVs) was anticipated to negatively affect the catalyst market; however, consumer adoption of EVs has been slower than expected, with many opting for hybrid vehicles that require more platinum [4][5] Price Dynamics - The price of platinum surged from $932/oz in early January to $1,637/oz, driven largely by investors seeking cheaper alternatives in the precious metals sector [5] - Other precious metals have also seen significant price increases, with silver rising by 77% and palladium by 61% since the start of the year, while gold has increased by 60% [5] - The WPIC noted that after years of deficits, the platinum market is expected to stabilize by 2026, which may put downward pressure on prices as supply increases [6][7] Supply and Demand - The above-ground stockpile of platinum has decreased from 5.5 million ounces in 2022 to an estimated 3.2 million ounces currently, indicating a tightening supply situation [7] - The forecasted deficit of 692,000 ounces in 2023 represents 9% of annual demand, while a supply increase of 4% is expected by 2026 due to processing spent auto catalysts and scrap metal sales [7] Company Focus - Valterra Platinum, a London-listed company spun out of Anglo American, has seen its share price rise by 73% since the beginning of the year, closely tracking the price movements of platinum [9]