Crude Prices Settle Higher on Dampened Optimism for a Russian-Ukrainian Peace Deal

Group 1: Oil Price Movements - Crude oil and gasoline prices increased on Wednesday, with January WTI crude oil closing up by 1.21% and January RBOB gasoline up by 1.39% [1][2] - The rise in crude prices was supported by a weaker dollar and concerns regarding the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which led to short covering in crude [2] - A report from Baker Hughes indicated that active US oil rigs fell to a four-year low, suggesting a potential decrease in US oil production in the near term [2] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors and Supply Constraints - Reduced crude exports from Russia were reported, with shipments falling to 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first half of November, the lowest in over three years [3] - Ukraine's targeting of Russian refineries has significantly impacted Russia's refining capacity, reducing it by 13% to 20% and curtailing production by up to 1.1 million bpd [3] - New sanctions from the US and EU on Russian oil companies and infrastructure have further limited Russian oil exports [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Forecasts - Ongoing geopolitical risks, including a potential US military action against Venezuela, are providing underlying support for oil prices [4] - OPEC revised its Q3 global oil market estimates from a deficit to a surplus, now projecting a surplus of 500,000 bpd, influenced by higher US production and increased OPEC output [5] - The EIA has also raised its 2025 US crude production estimate to 13.59 million bpd, up from 13.53 million bpd [5]