Years of stagnation await Britain as Labour gives up on growth

Economic Growth and Projections - The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) upgraded its growth forecasts for 2025 to 1.5%, but downgraded projections for the rest of the decade to 1.4% in 2026, down from 1.9%, and 1.5% each year to 2030 [1] - The average household is expected to be £850 poorer in 2029-30 compared to 2024-25, indicating a disappointing outlook for living standards [1] - The central forecast for real household disposable income (RHDI) per person in the UK is projected to grow at only 0.2% to 0.3% per year after this year, significantly lower than the long-run average [2][4] Employment and Income - Unemployment is expected to rise faster than previously anticipated, peaking at 5%, with the jobless rate only falling back to 4.1% in the final months of the decade [13] - Real terms hourly pay for workers is projected to remain 0.5% below its 2009-10 level by the end of the decade, reflecting a long-term squeeze on pay [3] Taxation and Fiscal Policy - The tax burden is forecasted to rise to a post-war high of 38.3% of GDP, driven by significant personal tax increases, including freezing income tax thresholds [21][22] - The OBR noted that the top half of earners pay 90% of all income tax, highlighting the increasing reliance on higher earners to fund public services [27][28] Government Spending - The OBR described the recent Budget as including substantial spending increases, with an average rise of £33 billion per year over the next five years, primarily to fund higher benefits [29] - By the end of the decade, public spending is expected to settle at just over 44% of GDP, which is five percentage points higher than pre-pandemic levels [30] Economic Outlook and Challenges - The OBR warned that the UK may not return to previous growth rates, citing a significant and long-lasting slowdown in productivity growth since the 2008 financial crisis [8] - The Chancellor's plans to manage debt and spending face challenges, with debt servicing costs projected to rise from £113.7 billion this year to £140 billion in five years [15][16]