美元兑日元逼近干预红线 东京通胀超预期难挽颓势

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is under pressure due to fiscal concerns and a rebound in global risk appetite, despite a temporary boost from Tokyo's inflation data, which indicates a potential shift towards tightening monetary policy by the Bank of Japan [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Tokyo's core CPI rose by 2.8% year-on-year in November, slightly exceeding expectations and remaining above the Bank of Japan's 2% target, providing temporary support for the yen [1]. - Japan's industrial output showed an unexpected recovery, reinforcing market expectations that the Bank of Japan may restart its rate hike cycle in the coming months [1]. - The latest short-term economic survey from the Bank of Japan indicates that labor shortages have reached the most severe level since the early 1990s, with core inflation expected to remain above 3% [2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - Despite expectations for a rate hike, there are internal disagreements within the Japanese government regarding the timing of such a move, as the yen has recently fallen to a 10-month low, raising concerns about further depreciation impacting food and import prices [1]. - The combination of persistent inflation, a weak yen, and credible wage growth data is pushing the Bank of Japan's policy committee towards tightening monetary policy sooner rather than later [1][2]. - Market observers believe that the conditions for the Bank of Japan to end its ultra-loose monetary policy are becoming increasingly mature as economic data continues to support this shift [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - Concerns over the government's large-scale economic stimulus plan are leading to rising Japanese government bond yields, as investors reassess the sustainability of Japan's debt [3]. - Optimism regarding the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts and the prospects for peace in Ukraine are contributing to a risk-on sentiment, which is diminishing the appeal of the yen as a safe-haven currency [3]. - The dollar index remains weak, with expectations for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in December continuing to pressure the dollar, potentially limiting the upside for USD/JPY [3].