近期宏观降息预期持续提升 铜价短期内或偏强震荡

Core Insights - The current spot price for 1 electrolytic copper in Shanghai is reported at 87,400 CNY per ton, showing a discount of 30 CNY per ton compared to the futures main price of 87,430 CNY per ton [1] - The futures market closed with the main contract for copper at 87,430 CNY per ton, reflecting a daily increase of 0.41%, with a trading volume of 94,508 lots [2] - The LME executive indicated that due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. copper tariffs, COMEX copper prices are expected to maintain a premium over LME prices for the next 18 months [3] Market Overview - The Shanghai Futures Exchange recorded a decrease in copper futures warehouse receipts, down by 3,952 tons to 35,873 tons on November 27, with a cumulative decline of 19,110 tons over the past week, representing a 34.76% drop [3] - In terms of industrial performance, profits for large-scale industrial enterprises in China fell by 5.5% year-on-year in October [4] - Freeport's report suggests that copper mine production is expected to remain stable next year, aligning with market expectations, while smelting output is anticipated to decline [4] Consumption and Pricing Dynamics - Recent feedback from downstream sectors indicates that after a drop in copper prices, consumption has shown some improvement, although the extent and sustainability of this recovery remain uncertain [4] - The domestic market has not yet shown significant inventory depletion, and there are expectations of continued export arrangements [4] - The recent macroeconomic environment has led to rising expectations for interest rate cuts, which may influence copper pricing dynamics in the near term [4]