半夏投资创始人李蓓：资产配置遇“乱世”，A股港股现“小确幸”，大牛市可期

Core Insights - The 2025 Analyst Conference highlighted the current chaotic state of global asset allocation, with a focus on the potential for a bull market in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [3][4] - Li Bei, founder of Hanxia Investment, emphasized the challenges in asset allocation due to various global uncertainties, including high fiscal deficits in the US and concerns over asset safety [3][4] Market Performance - The past year saw decent performance across various asset classes, but the difficulty in asset allocation has increased significantly [3][6] - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are viewed as "small fortunes" with the CSI 300 index currently at a PE ratio of approximately 13 times, implying a 7% return [4][10] - Despite ongoing economic deflation, the core index's ROE has stabilized, indicating resilience in leading companies' profitability [4][10] Sector Analysis - Leading companies in struggling sectors, such as construction and real estate, have begun to see profit recovery, with some construction leaders achieving net profit margins of 6% [4][11] - Real estate firms are gaining improved bargaining power in land acquisition, leading to net profit margins exceeding 10% for new projects [4][11] Future Outlook - There is optimism for a bull market in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, driven by the potential migration of capital into Chinese assets as domestic economic stability improves [4][12] - The current low risk appetite among Chinese residents, with significant wealth concentrated in fixed income, presents a potential catalyst for future asset reallocation [4][12] - The mismatch between China's manufacturing share and its international reserve status suggests that a recovery in the economy could lead to increased RMB settlement and reserve ratios [4][15]