停滞超过五年后，德国经济又“复活了”？IMF发出这些预警

Economic Outlook - The European Union forecasts that the German economy will grow by 1.2% in both 2026 and 2027, indicating potential signs of recovery after over five years of stagnation [1] - The German Federal Statistical Office reported that the GDP remained stable in the third quarter, avoiding recession, with industrial orders, output, and exports showing signs of recovery [1][4] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) noted that reforms to the debt brake mechanism by the German government are expected to support gradual economic recovery [1] Investment and Infrastructure - The German government has established a special fund totaling €500 billion for infrastructure projects, which is classified as additional debt and does not count against the current debt ceiling [2][5] - A significant portion of this fund is allocated for defense, with local arms manufacturers hiring workers from the automotive sector to support expansion plans [5] - Analysts believe that the efficiency of implementing these infrastructure projects is crucial, as delays could lead to inflationary pressures [5][10] Economic Challenges - Despite the positive outlook, the IMF warned that without further bold reforms at both domestic and EU levels, Germany faces serious mid-term growth challenges [2][8] - The labor force in Germany is expected to decline more sharply than in any other G7 country over the next five years, posing a significant challenge to economic growth [8] - Concerns have been raised about the potential misuse of new borrowing, with warnings that funds could be diverted to welfare spending rather than infrastructure [9][10] Long-term Growth Potential - The IMF anticipates that higher government spending starting in 2026 will provide a significant boost to economic growth, with GDP growth expected to accelerate to around 1% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027 [6][7] - The construction sector, which has faced a deep recession, is seen as critical for Germany's economic recovery, with expectations of a rebound due to cyclical rather than structural issues [5][6] - The ongoing demand for high-end manufacturing within the EU is expected to support Germany's economy, despite challenges faced by the automotive industry [6]