Midterm elections are coming in 2026. Here's what 100 years of data tell us about how stocks may react.

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "midterm curse," suggesting that the ruling party is likely to perform poorly in the upcoming midterm elections, which historically tends to favor the opposition party [1] Group 1: Historical Context - The "midterm curse" refers to the trend where the party in power typically loses seats in Congress during midterm elections, with an average loss of 30 seats in the House of Representatives [1] - Historical data indicates that in the last 20 midterm elections, the ruling party has lost seats 18 times, reinforcing the notion of the midterm curse [1] Group 2: Current Political Landscape - Current polling data shows that the ruling party is facing significant challenges, with approval ratings hovering around 40%, which is often a precursor to midterm losses [1] - The opposition party is capitalizing on various issues, including economic concerns and public dissatisfaction, which could further exacerbate the ruling party's struggles in the elections [1] Group 3: Implications for Future Elections - Analysts predict that if the ruling party does not address key voter concerns, it may face a substantial defeat in the upcoming elections, potentially losing control of one or both chambers of Congress [1] - The article emphasizes the importance of voter turnout and engagement, suggesting that the ruling party must mobilize its base to mitigate potential losses [1]