Seeking Alpha·2025-11-28 11:31Core Insights - A record number of shoppers, approximately 186.9 million, are expected to shop from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday, marking an increase of about 3 million from last year [4] - Black Friday remains the largest shopping day, with around 130.4 million shoppers planning to participate, followed by Cyber Monday at 40% and Small Business Saturday at 36% [5] Retail Performance - Costco and Walmart are identified as key winners in the holiday shopping season due to their strong brand presence and ability to offer low prices [6] - Costco's stock is down 2.5% year-to-date with a HOLD rating, while Walmart is up nearly 18% year-to-date, also holding a HOLD rating [7] Consumer Behavior - Direct-to-consumer brands face challenges as consumers increasingly price-check items on platforms like Amazon, leading to heightened price sensitivity [8][9] - Luxury brands like Louis Vuitton are performing well, as the top 10% of earners contribute significantly to consumption despite broader consumer pullbacks [10] Economic Context - The National Retail Federation forecasts total holiday spending to exceed $1 trillion for the first time, with sales growth projected between 3.7% and 4.2% for 2024 [13] - Retail stocks have struggled overall this year, with both consumer discretionary and staples sectors lagging behind the broader market due to economic pressures [14] Notable Retailers - Discount chains such as Dollar General and Dollar Tree have seen stock increases of over 30% this year, while brands like Coca-Cola have gained around 16% [15]