债市日报：11月28日

Core Viewpoint - The bond market showed slight recovery on November 28, with government bond futures exhibiting mixed performance, and the short-term funding rates mostly rising, indicating a cautious outlook for bond yields in the near term [1][5]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed with mixed results: the 30-year contract rose by 0.05% to 114.49, the 10-year contract increased by 0.03% to 107.94, while the 5-year and 2-year contracts fell by 0.03% and 0.02% respectively [2]. - The interbank bond yields generally declined, with the 30-year special government bond yield down by 1 basis point to 2.1865%, and the 10-year government bond yield down by 1.25 basis points to 1.8315% [2]. Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 3,013 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 737 billion yuan for the day [5]. - Short-term Shibor rates mostly increased, with the overnight rate down by 1.3 basis points to 1.301%, while the 7-day and 14-day rates rose by 1.2 and 2.1 basis points respectively [5]. Institutional Insights - Citic Securities noted that city commercial banks are actively cooperating with policies to manage hidden debts through loans and bond swaps, which may impact their asset-liability structure and profitability [6]. - Huachuang Securities highlighted a cautious outlook on interest rate cuts, with a lack of policy catalysts for yield declines, and noted that trading funds have not seen significant positive factors leading to a year-end rush [6]. Economic Context - Shenwan Futures reported that deposits continue to flow into higher-yielding non-bank sectors, while industrial production and consumption growth rates are slowing, primarily due to real estate sector challenges [7]. - The anticipation of policy announcements around year-end is expected to enhance market risk appetite, although recent regulations on fund sales may disrupt the bond market [7].