创新药行情走弱后，港股通困局何解？

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong innovative drug sector has experienced a significant rally this year, with the Hong Kong innovative drug index (CSI:931787) rising by 75% until October, but has since entered a cooling phase as investors digest previous gains [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The innovative drug sector saw 23 companies listed in the Hong Kong healthcare sector this year, compared to only 8 last year [3]. - Despite the initial surge, many companies that have not yet entered the Stock Connect are experiencing a decline in stock prices, indicating a challenging path to inclusion [3][4]. Group 2: Stock Connect Mechanism - The Stock Connect allows mainland investors to trade Hong Kong-listed stocks, with significant contributions from southbound funds, accounting for 40%-50% of trading volume in some companies [3][4]. - Companies not included in the Stock Connect face liquidity challenges, as most mainland public funds cannot invest directly [4][5]. Group 3: Challenges for Inclusion - The threshold for entering the Stock Connect has increased due to rising market valuations, with the market capitalization requirement for inclusion in the Hang Seng Composite Index set at approximately HKD 9.32 billion [6]. - Companies previously included in the Stock Connect but later removed face significant hurdles to re-entry, as liquidity issues persist [7][8]. Group 4: Business Development (BD) Fatigue - The market has shown signs of "BD fatigue," where announcements of potential business developments no longer lead to significant stock price increases, as seen with recent collaborations that resulted in stock declines [9][10]. - Investors are now demanding more substantial evidence of project viability and commitment from partners before reacting positively to BD announcements [10]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The market is currently in a quiet phase, with investors waiting for clear signals of recovery before increasing their positions, reflecting a cautious sentiment as year-end approaches [10][11].