四季度ETF资金流向大揭秘

Core Viewpoint - Despite recent fluctuations in the Hong Kong stock market, it continues to attract southbound capital inflows, with A-shares also maintaining strong appeal [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Since the beginning of the fourth quarter, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have experienced a decline, with major indices showing significant drops. As of November 27, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.19%, the STAR 50 Index dropped by 12.34%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 3.29%. In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Tech Index plummeted by 14.06%, while the Hang Seng Index fell by 3.29% [6] - Despite the fourth-quarter pullback, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have recorded substantial gains for the year. As of November 27, the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 29.34% and 25.29% respectively, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 15.62% and the STAR 50 Index by 32.54%. The Hong Kong innovative drug sector performed exceptionally well, with related indices showing over 90% growth [6] Group 2: Capital Inflows - There has been a notable trend of capital flowing into ETFs as investors seek opportunities. As of November 27, the top two stock ETFs by net inflow in the fourth quarter were from Guotai Junan Securities and Huabao Securities, with net inflows of 89.51 billion and 59.55 billion respectively. The Huaxia STAR 50 ETF also saw a net inflow of 51.65 billion, ranking third [6][7] - In terms of year-to-date net inflows, various themes such as securities, chemicals, robotics, and banking have been popular, with eight stock ETFs exceeding 10 billion in net inflows. Additionally, 11 cross-border ETFs related to the Hang Seng Tech or Hong Kong Stock Connect have also attracted significant capital, each exceeding 10 billion in net inflows [7] Group 3: AH Share Premium - The AH share premium index has been declining, currently around 120. Historically, A-shares of "A+H" companies have traded at a premium, but now some Hong Kong stocks are outperforming their A-share counterparts. For instance, as of November 28, the Hong Kong-listed NIO's stock price was 472 HKD per share, compared to 373.2 CNY for its A-share [9] - The continuous inflow of southbound capital is influencing the pricing power of Hong Kong stocks, with expectations that the AH premium will return to a more reasonable range as the interconnectivity mechanism improves [10] Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The long-term return outlook for A-shares is positive, with an expected annualized return of 7.7% over the next 10 to 15 years, based on three main drivers: economic resilience, ongoing shareholder return policies, and improved corporate governance [12]