英镑有望创三月来最佳单周表现，预算案情绪释放后短期涨幅或有限

Core Viewpoint - The British pound is expected to achieve its best weekly performance in over three months following the budget announcement by Chancellor Rachel Reeves, despite a slight decline against the US dollar on Thursday [1]. Group 1: Budget Announcement and Market Reaction - Chancellor Reeves' budget plan, which aims to fund additional welfare spending through the highest tax burden since World War II, includes a tax increase of £26 billion (approximately $34 billion) [1]. - The pound has risen approximately 0.85% this week, indicating a potential for the largest weekly gain since early August [1]. - George Vessey, Chief FX and Macro Strategist at Convera, noted that the pound's rise post-budget is more of a relief rebound rather than the start of a sustained trend, with market reactions being muted as most fiscal plans were already priced in [1]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Analyst Opinions - Analysts have mixed views on the budget; Deutsche Bank's Sanjay Raja described it as "better than expected," suggesting that the doubling of fiscal buffers could lower inflation and create conditions for the Bank of England to cut rates [4]. - The Institute for Fiscal Studies believes that while increasing taxes to enhance fiscal buffers is wise, the budget fails to address structural issues, as tax increases are future-oriented while spending is immediate [4]. - Concerns were raised by Ian Begg from the London School of Economics regarding the extension of freeze periods as a form of "implicit tax increase," which expands the taxpayer base without changing rates, thereby squeezing disposable income [4]. - Andrew Wishart from Berenberg Bank indicated that the tightening of budget deficits over the next two years supports the Bank of England's potential rate cuts, but warned that the budget heavily relies on the assumption of expected inflation decline, with external factors like energy prices posing new upward pressures [4].