美债加速膨胀的最强支撑是美元霸权

Core Viewpoint - The rapid expansion of U.S. national debt, surpassing $37 trillion and $38 trillion in 2025, is primarily a response to fiscal deficits and debt servicing pressures, but it is also a reflection of the U.S. government's proactive stance supported by the dominance of the dollar [1] Group 1: U.S. National Debt and Dollar Dominance - The U.S. national debt is projected to continue growing, with significant milestones reached in 2024 and 2025, indicating a trend towards further increases in the coming years [1] - The dollar's dominance is rooted in its historical establishment post-World War II, where it became the world's primary currency, replacing the British pound and establishing a global dollar system [2] - The transition from the gold standard to the dollar standard was solidified through agreements with OPEC countries in the 1970s, which mandated oil transactions in dollars, further entrenching the dollar's global status [3][4] Group 2: Mechanisms Supporting Dollar Dominance - The "petrodollar" system not only solidified the dollar's role in global trade but also provided the U.S. with additional financial benefits, such as transaction fees from oil trades and increased demand for dollar reserves [4] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, as remnants of the Bretton Woods system, continue to support the dollar's dominance, with the dollar accounting for 70% of the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket [4] - The Trump administration's introduction of stablecoins aims to reinforce the dollar's position by creating a new layer of dependency on the dollar in the global economy [5] Group 3: Global Central Bank Holdings and Debt Dynamics - Approximately 23% of U.S. debt is held by global central banks, indicating a strong preference for U.S. Treasury securities as a stable asset [7] - Despite some short-term selling of U.S. debt by central banks to hedge against currency depreciation, the overall trend remains towards increasing holdings of U.S. debt [7] - The U.S. utilizes its capital account surplus to balance its current account deficit, with countries holding trade surpluses with the U.S. being major purchasers of U.S. debt [8] Group 4: Challenges to Dollar Dominance - The push for "de-dollarization" is primarily driven by emerging market countries, but developed economies maintain close ties with the U.S., which may limit the effectiveness of these efforts [9] - Historical patterns suggest that the transition of global currency dominance is a lengthy process, with the dollar's position likely to remain strong for the foreseeable future [9]