碳酸锂涨价点燃锂矿股，有色龙头ETF（159876）应声涨1.72%！机构研判：有色牛市格局有望延续

Core Viewpoint - Lithium mining stocks are rebounding, driven by rising prices of lithium carbonate, with significant gains observed in various companies and ETFs in the non-ferrous metals sector [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On November 28, lithium mining stocks led the rebound, with notable increases: Shengxin Lithium Energy rose over 7%, Yahua Group over 6%, and several others over 3% [1]. - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a broad increase, with the non-ferrous leader ETF (159876) rising by 1.72%, and over the past 10 days, funds have increased by more than 230 million yuan [1]. - After six consecutive months of gains, the non-ferrous leader ETF (159876) experienced a monthly decline, prompting significant recent fund inflows, possibly to capitalize on a correction opportunity [1]. Group 2: Lithium Market Dynamics - Lithium mining stocks are expected to continue benefiting from the rising prices of lithium carbonate, with battery-grade lithium carbonate priced at 90,600-96,000 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [3]. - Long-term forecasts suggest that 2026 may mark a turning point for lithium carbonate supply and demand, driven by steady domestic demand and increasing energy storage needs [3]. - The lithium industry's darkest period is over, with a clear trend of improving supply and demand fundamentals [3]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Influences - Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials and delayed economic data support expectations for interest rate cuts, with the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut in December rising from about 40% to over 80% [3]. - A Fed rate cut is anticipated to elevate the price levels of the entire non-ferrous metals sector, as it encourages investors to hold more tangible assets and makes metals cheaper in dollar terms [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - CITIC Construction expresses optimism for the non-ferrous sector, predicting a continued bull market through 2026, driven by new productive forces and China's rapid rise [4]. - The current cycle is seen as a "new productive force bull market," with different metals experiencing varying degrees of demand and market dynamics [4]. - The non-ferrous leader ETF (159876) and its associated funds provide comprehensive coverage across various metals, allowing for better risk diversification compared to investing in single metal sectors [4].