行稳致远 |《资本周期》读后感

Core Viewpoint - Marathon Capital focuses on two types of investment opportunities: "sustained advantage" (growth type) and "turnaround" (value type) companies, utilizing a framework called "return decay rate" to identify these investments [1][6]. Group 1: Investment Type A - Sustained Advantage - Investment Type A refers to companies that can maintain returns above market expectations for an extended period, often mispriced by the market due to short-term issues [3][6]. - A notable example is Apple during the period from 2014 to 2016, where its stock was undervalued due to temporary performance declines following Steve Jobs' death, leading to significant long-term gains for investors like Warren Buffett [3][6]. Group 2: Investment Type B - Turnaround - Investment Type B consists of companies in traditional industries that are overlooked by the market but possess certain advantages, with returns improving faster than general market expectations [6]. - The turnaround often occurs during periods of extreme pessimism, where market consolidation or the exit of weaker competitors creates favorable conditions for the remaining companies [6]. Group 3: Investment Patience and Timing - Successful investments require patience, as the majority of the time is spent waiting for the company to deliver strong performance, with the actual realization of returns being a small fraction of the investment period [10][14]. - The case of Pop Mart illustrates that the best buying opportunities often arise during periods of short-term performance decline and market pessimism, as seen when its stock price fell significantly in 2022 [10][12]. Group 4: Historical Investment Examples - The investment journey of Pop Mart shows that despite an 80% decline in stock price over two years, a subsequent recovery led to a fivefold return after holding for over four years [9][10]. - Warren Buffett's investment in BYD, where he bought shares at HKD 8 and saw a tenfold increase within a year, exemplifies the potential for significant returns despite long periods of underperformance [13][14].