Consumer Bifurcation Forming, Volatility Curb Set-Up for Santa Calus Rally?

Market Overview - The CME has halted futures trading, leading to a quiet market on Black Friday, with some metals starting to trade [1] - Volatility in equity markets has decreased, with the VIX at one-month lows and a four-day winning streak for equities [1] - The S&P 500 is down only 4% from Wednesday's close, indicating a potential Santa Claus rally [1] Consumer Spending and Retail Sector - Consumer spending is expected to reach $1 trillion this holiday season, surpassing last year's estimates [1] - Retail earnings have been strong, with significant attention on upcoming reports from Macy's, Dollar Tree, and Dollar General [1] - There is a bifurcation in the market, with consumer sentiment declining while GDP growth expectations remain high at 4% for the current quarter [1] Retail Winners and Losers - Kohl's stock surged 40% post-earnings, highlighting unexpected winners in the retail space [2] - Discount retailers like Dollar General and Dollar Tree are under observation, while Costco is noted for being in a downtrend [3] Oracle's Financial Situation - Oracle's stock has dropped about 27% in the month prior to trading being halted, with concerns over rising borrowing rates [4][5] - The company is seeking a $38 billion loan to fund data centers in Texas and Wisconsin, raising credit risk concerns [6][7] - Credit default swaps for Oracle have increased, indicating heightened credit risk, with the stock down 40% from its all-time high in September [7][8]