Guggenheim Reaffirms Dollar General at Buy, Sees Near-Term Catalysts

Core Viewpoint - Guggenheim maintains a Buy rating and a $125 price target on Dollar General, indicating confidence in the stock's future performance despite its recent outperformance [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Valuation - Dollar General shares have significantly outperformed this year, driven by EBIT recovery linked to lower shrink expenses, yet the stock is still trading at a reasonable 8.2x Guggenheim's 2026E EBITDA estimate [2]. - The firm believes that upcoming developments, such as potentially strong third-quarter results and a raised full-year outlook, will support further upside [2]. Group 2: Earnings Expectations and Challenges - Guggenheim views Street expectations for 2026 earnings as conservative, especially with the potential for easing LIFO and interest expenses, as well as a reduced share count, even with a mostly flat EBIT margin [3]. - The firm recognizes challenges in achieving Dollar General's long-term EBIT margin target of 6%–7%, particularly after shrink normalizes in the first half of 2026 [3]. - Despite these challenges, Guggenheim retains its Buy rating until near-term catalysts are fully realized [3].