ETFs Likely to Benefit from Thanksgiving Weekend Sales

Core Insights - Americans are expected to spend heavily during the Thanksgiving weekend, benefiting various exchange-traded funds (ETFs) linked to consumer spending [1] - A record 186.9 million shoppers are anticipated from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, indicating a rise from 183.4 million last year [2] - Black Friday remains the leading shopping day, with an estimated 130.4 million shoppers, followed by Cyber Monday with 73.9 million [3] Spending Strength & Patterns - Shoppers expect to spend an average of $542 over the five-day period, an increase from $529 in 2024, with Millennials projected to spend an average of $764 per person [4] - About 36% of consumers plan to spend more than last year, with Gen Z leading the trend, as nearly 60% indicate they will increase their spending compared to 2024 [5] - 83% of shoppers plan to shop in physical stores, while 83% will shop online for delivery, and 58% intend to order online and pick up in-store [6] Retail Strategies - Retailers are offering fewer and shorter promotions this year, which may support profit margins, although Walmart's aggressive discounts could pressure competitors [7] - Walmart shares have increased by 17% year-to-date as of November 21, 2025, and gained 2.6% last week [7] Likely ETF Winners - The following ETFs are expected to benefit from Thanksgiving weekend spending: SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT), Amplify Online Retail ETF (IBUY), ProShares Online Retail ETF (ONLN), Amplify Digital Payments ETF (IPAY), iShares FinTech Active ETF (BPAY), and Invesco S&P SmallCap Consumer Discretionary ETF (PSCD) [8]